Iran: Scenarios for the Future After Trump's Threats

Following a week of major protests in Iran, the regime faces serious challenges. Despite the suppression of demonstrations, the underlying causes of social unrest remain.

Economic protests in Tehran turned into a challenge to the regime. Protesters called for the fall of the Islamic Republic, while some mentioned the return of Reza Pahlavi.

US President Donald Trump threatened strikes, but Gulf countries pressured to avoid military conflict. The possibility of an American strike remains on the table.

If there are talks between Washington and Tehran, Iran will be in a difficult position, as American bombings have damaged nuclear facilities. Iran maintains a stockpile of enriched uranium, but a new negotiation could extend to missiles and armed organizations.

The social contract between state and society has been shaken. The organized opposition has been suppressed, and the alternative remains unclear. The exiled forces are fragmented, and there is fear of the country's dissolution.

The protests are likely to return, and change, if it comes, will be the result of long-term attrition.