Israel-Iran Ceasefire: Timeline and Escalation Potential

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran came into effect at 07:00 Cyprus time, following an announcement by Donald Trump via social media. At 09:00, Israel and Iran accepted the American proposal for a ceasefire, with Iran stating it would cease attacks only if Israel did the same.

However, at 10:30, Israel reported a new attack, announcing that it had intercepted missiles launched from Iran towards the north of the country, a claim denied by Tehran at 10:45. Israeli armed forces warned of a "dynamic response."

At 11:30, Israel foreshadowed retaliation, suggesting a collapse of the ceasefire. International Relations expert Dr. Antonis Stylianou, speaking to ThemaOnline, described the ceasefire as a "particularly significant development" after Iran's attack on the largest US base in Qatar, emphasizing the fragile nature of diplomatic efforts.

Dr. Stylianou explained that Iran's attack on US bases was "symbolic," with a limited number of missiles, in response to strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. The US reaction suggests it was not considered a serious counter-attack attempt, with Trump thanking Iran for the warning.

According to Dr. Stylianou, the ceasefire suggests a potential de-escalation, indicating that the goals of Israel and the US to suppress Iran's nuclear program have been achieved. However, the possibility of escalation depends on Iran's acceptance of the ceasefire terms.

The June 22 strikes on nuclear facilities appear to have been successful, although the extent of the damage and the fate of enriched uranium remain unknown. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that Iran possessed 400 kg of enriched uranium at 60%, close to the production of nuclear weapons.