EU-US Trade Deal: Winners and Losers

Analyses from Deutsche Bank, UniCredit, Berenberg, and UBS converge on the conclusion that the EU-US trade deal reduces uncertainty but is asymmetrical, favoring the US.

Trump and Von der Leyen announced a deal with a 15% tariff for the EU, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, but the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum remains. Exceptions exist for aircraft and other strategic products.

Deutsche Bank notes that the EU will purchase $750 billion in energy from the US, replacing Russia as a key supplier. It will also purchase military equipment worth 'hundreds of billions.' The EU has committed to $600 billion in investments in the US, which could weaken the EU's development potential.

UniCredit emphasizes that the agreement is asymmetrical, leaving US tariffs higher. There are ambiguities regarding tariffs on pharmaceuticals and steel. Berenberg reports that the deal is better than a trade war, but the additional tariffs will harm both the US and the EU.

UBS expects relief but is concerned about ambiguities. The agreement reinforces the deterioration of conditions for EU exports to the US, with a weighted average tariff rate of 15.2%.