New Scenarios for Oil and Stagflation

International and domestic institutions are analyzing the economic impact of the war in the Middle East, focusing on oil prices and the risk of stagflation.

Oxford Economics maintains its forecast for Brent crude oil at $113 per barrel in the second quarter, considering the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed.

Some analysts do not rule out the possibility of oil reaching its 2008 record ($147 per barrel), while Citigroup forecasts an average Brent price of $95/barrel in the base scenario and $130/barrel in the upside scenario.

Piraeus Bank estimates that the Greek economy will grow by 1.9% in 2026, but could fall to 1.5% with inflation up to 5.0% in more adverse scenarios.

The Bank of Greece forecasts growth of 1.9%, while the European Commission forecasts 2.2% for 2026 and 1.7% for 2027.

Alpha Bank estimates that a manageable disruption in supply chains will have a mild impact on growth, but in the event of a prolonged war, inflation could increase by about 2%.