JP Morgan: Inflation Forecasts – Will Prices Rise (Again)?

J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts that global core inflation will rise to 3.4% annually in the second half of 2025. It also expects a synchronized slowdown in global growth to 1.4% annually, mainly due to pressures in the US.

J.P. Morgan's chief global economist, Bruce Kasman, notes that the boost to the global goods sector is weakening, while tariff increases in the US and a decline in business sentiment will amplify the downward pressure on growth.

While cost pressures will concentrate in the US, structural inflation in other countries is expected to slow below 3% annually, with a likely drop in Europe. J.P. Morgan expects monetary policy easing from central banks, with the Fed remaining cautious due to stagflation.

In the UK, inflation has recently risen, leading J.P. Morgan to raise its forecast for overall inflation to 3.7% for the third quarter of 2025. In Europe, inflation is expected to fall below 2% in the Eurozone and Sweden.

In China, the pricing environment remains weak, with low inflation and deflation in the producer price index. In emerging markets, inflation is expected to slow, supporting further policy easing.

Key points:

• Global inflation is expected to rise to 3.4% in 2025.
• Global growth slowdown to 1.4%.
• US tariffs are expected to affect inflation.
• Easing of monetary policy by central banks.